(Brig (retd) GB Reddy)
(Our Special Correspondent)
The key macro level issues pertaining to the “Nuclear Energy Technologies”, as part of the electricity generating agencies, have been restricted to policy and decision making levels to determine end objectives in pragmatic manner for the scientists and technologists to implement:
A. Growth of Electricity Installed capacity.
B. Climate Crisis and “Net Zero” commitment.
C. Long Term Goal.
D. Basic facts pertaining to Nuclear
Energy Technologies.
E. Global Trends – GEN IV Forum.
F. History of India’s Nuclear Energy.
G. Future programs.
Growth of Electricity Installed Capacity: In Dec 1947, installed capacity of electricity was only 508 MWe. The growth story of installed capacity (in Megawatts) includes: 1961 – 1917 MWe; 1971 – 16271 MWe; 1981 – 33316 MWe; 1991-74699 MWe; 2001 – 101630 MWe; and, 2011 – 185496 MWe. As on 31 August 2022, the total installed capacity of 407.797 GW to include: Total Fossil Fuel -236.086 GW (57.9%) with Coal producing 204.079 MWs (50.0%), Lignite producing 6.620 MWs (1.6%), Gas producing 24,824 MWs (6.1%), and Diesel producing – 562 MWs (0.1).
And, Non-Fossil Fuel RES (Incl. Hydro and Nuclear) total installed capacity of 171.71 GW includes: Hydro producing 46,850 MWs (11.5 %), Wind producing 41.666 MWs (10.2 %), Solar producing 60,814 MWs (14.9 %), BM Power/Cogen producing 10,206 MWs (2.5 %), Waste to Energy producing 495 MWs (0.1 %), and Small Hydro Power producing 4,899 MWs (1.2 %). Nuclear installed capacity is 6,780 MWs (1.7%). Today, few analysts claim that India has moved from power deficit to power surplus nation with total generating capacity at 1,386 bn kWh, which is 122% of own usage, that is total consumption of 1,137.00 bn kWh. Now, India is exporting power to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
However, the reality of per capita electric consumption provides a different perspective. It was merely 16 kWh in 1947 that increased to 914 KWh in 2012-2013 and 1208 kWh in 2021. By contrast with advanced countries like Canada -15,438, USA-13098, Korea – 11082, Australia – 9906, Japan -8010 and even China – 4906 among others, it is insignificant. Per capita consumption, which is the hallmark of developed nations, is well below the global average of 3,260 KWh.
The state of nuclear reactors operational, under construction and planned includes: 54 reactors operational in 7 x Nuclear reactor plants. By types/classification, there are 3 BWRs of GEN I (1969) vintage, 12 PHWRs of GEN II category, 36 PHWRs and three VVERs in GEN category. The installed capacity of only 2xPHWRs of GEN III category is 500 MWe with the rest having capacity of 220 MWe. And, the installed capacity of VVERs is 1000 MWe. And, there are 11 reactors with installed capacity of 8900 MW under construction to include: Seven IPHWRs of GEN III (each 700 MW); and Four VVER-1000 (each 1000 MW). Also, 26 reactors with installed capacity of 27,500 MW are proposed to include: Six EPR GEN III+ category (each 1650 MW), Six ESBWR GEN III category (each 1000 MW), Six LWR GEN III category (each 1000 MW) and 8 IPHWR GEN III category (each 700 MW). If all them are considered to be executed by 2030, even then the total installed capacity will be around 43,180 MW or 43.180 GW, which does not even constitute 4% by 2030 of total installed capacity. At least 10-15% NUC contribution as opposed to 20% in advanced countries like the US or France should be bench mark.
Climate Crisis and Net Zero Commitment: India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement for the Period 2021- 2030 include: reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level; and, to achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from Non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology and low cost international finance. Currently visualized is 450 GW renewable and 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030, which needs review.
Long Term Goal: “24×7 power supply without interruption” is India’s long term goal. Four factors must be taken into account while determining the end objectives to include: economic super power rise (7-8 percent annual GDP increase); population growth to 1.85 billion; at least 3-4 times increase of per capita consumption/demand (to reach world average of 3260 MWe); and climate change constraints. As per the IEAs Energy Outlook 2021 released recently, India’s energy consumption is expected to nearly double as GDP expands to an estimated $8.6 trillion by 2040 under its current national policy scenario. In particular, reducing fossil fuel consumption to 30%.
On the basis of a 3-times increase in per capita consumption to move above the current world average and addition of nearly 400 lakhs population to the current level by 2050, the requirement could be over 1200 GW. With the reduction of fossil fuels contribution from 60% to at least 40% (that is 480 GW), surely the end objective of RES+NUC would be over 720 GW with NUC share at 120 GW (10%).
Thus, the imperative for pragmatic analysis to identify and define end objectives for each field. Perhaps, the end objective of total installed capacity to be achieved by 2047 by conservative estimates be 600-700 GWe by 2030, and 1200 GWe by 2050, and by optimistic estimates to reach 1500 GWe by 2050. If so, review of end objectives for fossil fuels and non-fossil fuels for each plan period is vital.
Basic facts pertaining to Nuclear Energy Technologies: Nuclear power is the use of nuclear reactions – fission, fusion and decay. Presently, electricity from nuclear power is produced by nuclear fission of uranium and plutonium. . Fusion is the process of combining two nuclei to create energy. It has the ability to provide power around the clock, 365 days a year. Nuclear decay processes are used in niche applications such as radioisotope thermoelectric generators in some space probes such as Voyager 2.
Over 12 advanced reactor designs are under development. Research of nuclear fusion power is in an advanced stage. Also, there is research to combine fusion and fission processes to generate hybrid nuclear power. When a sustained nuclear fusion power plant is built, it has the potential to be capable of extracting all the fission energy that remains in spent fission fuel, reducing the volume of nuclear waste by orders of magnitude, and eliminating all actinides present in the spent fuel and others.
Breeding is the process of converting non-fissile material into fissile material that can be used as nuclear fuel. As of 2017, there are two breeders producing commercial power, the BN-600 reactor and the BN-800 reactor, both in Russia. Both China and India are building breeder reactors. The Indian 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) is in the commissioning phase, with plans for two more. Furthermore, new small modular reactors, such as those developed by NuScale Power, are aimed at reducing the investment costs for new construction by making the reactors smaller and modular, so that they can be built in a factory. Certain designs had considerable early positive economics, such as the CANDU, which realized a much higher capacity factor and reliability when compared to GEN II LWRs of the 1990s. Classification of Nuclear Reactors: Nuclear reactors are classified by type of nuclear reaction like fission, fusion or by moderator fuel like Graphite-moderated (GCR), Heavy Water, Light Water, Light-element-moderated, liquid element moderated and Organic moderated and also by gas – Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR), or, by Coolant like Pressurized water reactor (PWR) or Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWR), Boiling water reactor (BWR), Supercritical water reactor (SCWR), Reduced moderation water reactor [RMWR], sodium cooled pool type LMFBRs, Gas cooled reactors and Molten-Salt reactors (MSR).
Also, nuclear reactors are classified by Generations – Generation I (GEN I) developed in 1950-60s, GEN II reactors developed in 1965-1996, GEN III 1996-2016 or III+ developed in 2017-2021, and GEN IV research and development started after 2000 – Gas-cooled fast reactor, Lead-cooled fast reactor, Molten-salt reactor, Sodium-cooled fast reactor, Supercritical water reactor and Very-high-temperature reactor with the primary goals being to improve nuclear safety, improve proliferation resistance, minimize waste and natural resource utilization, and to decrease the cost to build and run such plants. Furthermore, theoretically possible GEN V and V+ have been identified for research and development.
GEN III PWRs reactors – VVER-1000 of Russia – use high-pressure water as moderator and coolant. GEN III BWRs/ABWRs – GE, Toshiba and Hitachi – use low-pressure water as moderator and coolant without the steam generator – Higher, simpler, more stable and safe. GEN III+ IPHWRs – BARC IPHWR – uses high-pressure heavy water as moderator and coolant very similar to PWRs but using heavy water. RBMK uses graphite as moderator and high-pressure water as coolant. They are refuelable during power operation, but very unstable, large, expensive making containment buildings. GCR uses graphite moderator and carbon dioxide as coolant and AGR uses gas. Have a high thermal efficiency compared with PWRs. LMFBR No moderator; liquid metal (Lead or Sodium) is the coolant. MSR uses graphite as moderator and molten-salt mixture as coolant.
Electricity Generating Capacity of GEN III or III+ of various makes include: ABWR-II (GE, Toshiba and Hitachi)- 1638; EPR (France Areva) – 1600 MWe; AP 1000 (Westinghouse, Toshiba) – 1117 MWe; CAP 1400(SNPTC, Westinghouse) – 1400 MWe; VVER 1200 (Russia) – around 1100 MWe; IPHWR (BARC) – 700 MWe, FBR (India) – 500 MWe; etc. So, various options available need to be considered from the life-cycle costs and final choices of the most cost-effective reactor-mix at various plants.
Global Trends and GEN IV Forum: In 1954, there were “Zero” nuclear reactors. By the end of 2021, there were 437 operational nuclear reactors in 32 out of 195 countries worldwide with a combined capacity of 396 GW providing about 10 per cent of the world’s electricity. There are also 53 nuclear power reactors under construction and 98 reactors planned, with a combined capacity of 60 GW and 103 GW, respectively. The US has the largest fleet of nuclear reactors. The US and the UK generate roughly 20% of their electricity from nuclear energy and in France, it’s 70%. Most reactors under construction are GEN III reactors. In July 2001, 13 countries formed the GEN IV forum to pursue international collaborative efforts to develop next generation nuclear energy systems that can help meet the world’s future energy needs. (To be concluded)
