When the US National Security Advisor (NSA) and his NSA counterpart from China, and their delegations met in Rome on March 14, the date reminded your author of the phrase – Beware the ides of March. Therefore, in the spirit of a Shakespearean drama, this piece of today is a fictional account, of the give-and-take, carrots and sticks, threats, and counter-threats, which might well play out in such meetings between representatives of nations.
Act 1, Scene 1 – Going into the US-China meeting, the dramatis personae of both the US and China will have their “asks” defined, and each will aim to gain some, narrow some, side-step some, while some topics shall remain outstanding, on which there may be grandstanding in public, by both parties in their carefully worded or blunt remarks after the meeting.
Act 1, Scene 2 – This US-China meet was already scheduled, to discuss various bilateral and other matters between the two countries. Now, perchance, there is the Gigantic Ukraine war in the background, thus it will mean that perhaps at least 1/3rd or 1/2 of the total time of the meeting will be taken up by the Russia-Ukraine issue.
Act 2, Scene 1 – On the American side, there are several issues with China, but perhaps top of the list will be bilateral trade – tariff wars, and the supposed $ 200 billion target that China should be additionally importing every year from the US in order to reduce the US trade deficit. This is a big one for America. Higher US exports to China mean more jobs in America, and no American politician will lose sight of this primary objective. Act 2, Scene 2 – Some other asks and talking points from America will be, in no order of priority – IPR, financial compliance of Chinese firms on NYSE, NASDAQ, human rights, Taiwan, North Korea, communication hot-lines, or, even about Afghanistan (I much doubt anyone remembers Afghanistan?). Act 3, Scene 1 – The curtain rises, and a big picture of the Russian bear on a reed screen forms the backdrop of the stage, as both the American and Chinese delegations are sitting across a long rectangular table. The dramatis personae know the heavy burden that they carry on their shoulders to protect and further the interests of each country. The air in the room is thick with a sense of history and monumental omens. Here is when a smooth Chanakyaian, or Machiavellian, chess move, the offer can be made by the American side
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Act 3, Scene 2 – The scene opens with the American side telling China that regarding Russia, the US has a 5-point game plan, which it calls as a Five-Petals Plan, that it wants China to abide by. The US NSA expounds that this Five-Petals Plan, as offered by the US to China, will also build trust, and in long term will help in narrowing gaps between US-China. The representative of the USA thereafter proceeds to enunciate the following: (1) Firstly, the US insists that the bilateral trade deal target of $ 200 billion must be upheld and implemented by China, and demonstrable progress is shown, ASAP, along with the resolution of some of the bilateral tariff disputes, IPR matters.
(2) Secondly, for next year, we, the US, will go slow, lax on matters of human rights, matters of Uyghurs, and Hong Kong. (3) Thirdly, for the next year, we, the US, will go slow, and lax on matters of de-listing about 270 Chinese companies from public markets NYSE, and NASDAQ (unless they allow SEC to audit their papers held in China). (4) Fourthly, for the next year, we, the US, will ignore, and look sideways if you import low-cost wheat, and sun-flower oil, from Russia, since these are food staples and we realize that food inflation can create social unrest in any country, especially when you, China, have an annual congress upcoming in November that is important for your country, and Xi Jinping. (5) Fifthly, for next year, there should be no military supplies, or any economic help, to Russia by China. Barring the above 5 points, on all other fronts, Taiwan, any other, we the US will continue to healthily compete with you, and we reserve the right on how we act or react. Act 4, Scene 1 – The Chinese delegation listens in bafflement as the US NSA lays out the Five-Petals Plan. Soon as the US NSA finishes speaking, the #2 of the US delegation politely clears his throat and says – “If I may take the liberty to clarify and decode remarks of our NSA, we offer the Five-Petals Plan, subject to one other important condition. China must not buy any additional oil or gas from Russia, in the next one year.
