When you (and everyone else) expect interest rates to rise

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A lot has happened in the bilateral relations between India and Maldives during the last 10 years. The rela- tions which were once described as one of the most vibrant and dynamic, have turned into one in which India has been painted as a villain. Though the gen- esis started 10 years back, yet it gathered further momentum during the last three years particularly, resulting in ‘India Out campaign on the social me- dia. The movement got a boost when the Maldives Supreme Court overruled former President Abdulla Yameen’s conviction in a money-laundering and embezzlement case in November 2021. The devel- opment allowed him to make a return to politics. A political campaign Ties between India and the Maldives had hit a low during the tenure of Yameen, who was considered to be pro-China rather than pro-India. Yameen’s half-brother, former president and currently Maldives Reform Movement party leader (MRM) Mamoon Abdul Ghayum, is among those who have opposed the campaign, even in 2013 when Yameen became the President.

India-Maldives bilateral relations deteriorated dur- ing the Peoples Party of Maldives’ (PPM) five-year rule beginning in 2013, then led by Yameen and the anti- India sentiment was apparent even back then, observ- ers say. Paradoxically though the Yameen government and its predecessor, the Waheed government, were considered “anti-India”, and though the Yameen gov- ernment’s tilt in favour of China was clear, yet it had also openly discussed an ‘India-First’ policy for the Maldives. Other political parties in the Maldives too have opposed the anti-India campaign, saying the for- mer president is irresponsibly inciting hatred among the people towards India. The PPM brushing aside the charges against it, in its defence says that the current Ibrahim Solih government has opted at times to keep the relationship, particularly that under the defence sector under wraps from where the criticism basically stems from. The Adhaalath Party, a coalition partner of President Solih, in a statement condemned efforts to “incite hatred in the people’s hearts towards neigh- bouring and global partners”, and expressed concern at the “reckless acts led by former president Yameen to incite hatred towards neighbouring India amongst the civilians”.

The Jumhooree Party, another coali- tion partner of the Solih government, also said in a statement that it doesn’t support any activities, which compromise the independence and sovereignty of the Maldives, and the Jumhooree Party does not believe that there is any legal ground to decide the existence of any Indian military presence in the country. There are specific issues, which have fuelled the anti-India sentiments and rhetoric on the social media during the last three years. The first is the long-standing contro- versy over the two Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF) that were given by India to the Maldives in 2010 and in 2015, both of which were used for ocean search-and- rescue operations, maritime weather surveillance and for airlifting patients between islands.

These helicopters were meant to be deployed for humanitarian purposes only, but some in the anti- India constituency, particularly Yameen’s party PPM, tried to portray that by gifting these helicopters, India was creating military presence in the country because they were military choppers. Secondly, the two coun- tries signed bilateral agreements according to which Indian officers were to train the Maldives National Defence Force, under whose command these heli- copters operate. Thirdly, after the Solih government came to power, in 2019, local Maldivian media specu- lated that the UTF Harbour Project agreement signed between India and the Maldives in 2016, during the Yameen government, would be turned into an Indian naval base. Under the project India was to develop and maintain a coastguard harbour and dockyard at Uthuru Thilafalhu, a strategically located atoll near the capital Malé, and develop road connectivity to Male and decongest the Male harbour.

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