The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday updated its long-range forecast outlook for the southwest monsoon rainfall season (June–September) 2024. It also released the monthly rainfall and temperature forecast for June 2024 in a virtual media interaction in New Delhi. Dr Mritunjya Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, presented the forecast.
Highlights of the long range forecast
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. Thus, above normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season — June to September, 2024.
The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2024) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over central India and south peninsular India (>106% of LPA), normal over northwest India (92-108% of LPA) and below normal over northeast India (<94% of LPA).
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).
Above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of northern part of northwest India, northeast India and eastern part of the central India and adjoining areas of east India, where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.
Normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) is most likely over the country as a whole during June, 2024. The above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south peninsula, and adjoining areas of central India and over isolated areas of northwest and northeast India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern and eastern parts of northwest India and eastern part of central India, and over some areas over Northeast India and southeastern part of south peninsula.
In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely.
During June, above-normal heatwave days are likely over most areas of northwest India and adjoining areas of central India.
The strong El Niño conditions observed over equatorial Pacific in the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and currently transitioning towards ENSO neutral conditions. The latest climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.
