The South India Times
(Our Special Correspondent)
The Election Commission of India has finally announced the election schedule for the much-awaited Gujarat state assembly. Gujarat polls continue to be most important as it happens to the native state of none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as the Union Home Minister Amit Shah. he party is in power for the past 28 years, which is a record of sorts that the BJP has created in independent India. Unlike in the past, this time around many political analysts feels that it will be a triangular contest between the ruling BJP and the principal Opposition Congress, besides the new challenger AAP of Arvind Kejriwal. Yet, who among these two Opposition parties can become the real challenger to the BJP?
In the last elections, the BJP could win 99 of the 182, while the Congress came close with 77. With the entry of AAP, one has to wait and see how far it will create an impact on its presence. According to an opinion poll, the BJP is expected to bag 135-143 seats in the 182-member assembly, winning comfortably for a record seventh time. The opinion poll was conducted by ABP News-C-Voter, and the vote share of BJP and Congress will decrease.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can see a significant increase in vote share, but will hardly get one or two. This is contrary to the hype and hoopla created by the AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, the prime accused in the multi-crore liquor gate scam.
However, as a result of a strong challenge posed by AAP as a strong third force, the vote shares of the BJP and INC (Indian National Congress) are likely to drop below the 2017 polls. Many political analysts feel that AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal may boast of its emphatic win in Punjab, but not for the right reasons as it enjoyed the backing of the separatist forces like the outlawed Khalistanis and others, besides the decaying Congress as well as most corrupt Akali Dal. This was in the wake of similar hype the AAP has created in the five state polls, including in Uttarakhand and Goa, where some pollsters even claimed of Kejriwal party performing well. But, barring Punjab, the AAP has also been in almost all constituencies in these states, more so in UP, candidate forfeits their deposits. In such a scenario, how the AAP is likely to fare in both the states – Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh – where elections are scheduled and dates are out, one has to wait and see. The former Congress President and MP from Waynad have made tall claims during his ongoing ‘Bharat Jodo” yatra, that his party is on a comeback trail in Gujarat as well as in Himachal Pradesh. Meanwhile, the Election Commission has finally announced the much-awaited poll schedule in Gujarat, where it will be held in two phases – December 1 and 5 – and the counting on December 8. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, before announcing the schedule, expressed condolences to the victims of the Morbi bridge tragedy. He said there was a delay in announcing the poll schedule due to the accident that killed at least 135 people. The term of the Gujarat Assembly ends on February 18, 2023. With the announcement of the election schedule, the Model Code of Conduct comes into effect in the state. The Centre has deployed 160 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces ahead of the polls.
