Mohamed Chebaro: All the assessments of the ongoing war in Ukraine, nearly six months on from the Russian invasion, point to a state of attrition taking shape on all fronts. This makes a breakthrough and/or victory for any of the warring parties impossible, meaning the imminent cessation of military activity has become something of an unattainable dream.
Despite Ukraine’s recent successes in holding off Russian advances on various fronts due to the new weapons it has received from NATO countries, it is unlikely that Kyiv will be in a position to liberate its occupied towns and cities any time soon. Similarly and if we believe the recent US assessment that Russia has lost between 70,000 and 80,000 of its troops to death or injury during the campaign — Moscow’s military is unlikely to achieve its aim of returning all of Ukraine to its alleged legitimate Russian owners, at least not during this campaign.
This leaves the EU, which has stood firmly on Ukraine’s side as it attempts to fend off the unprovoked Russian aggression, exposed on all fronts in its bid to defend its easternmost flank. Any failure of the bloc now might encourage the Kremlin leadership to aspire to return countries such as Poland and the Baltic states to its orbit. And this will come at a price for the bloc, which rose from the ashes of the Second World War to promote unity and prosperity for its members within a stable and peaceful Europe.
The EU is suddenly facing an existential threat that could drive a wedge between its members, as the adversities of this “just” war as it is in the eyes of the EU leadership but not necessarily among all its people could prove divisive as the state of attrition sets in. The war’s economic, political and social ramifications could shake the essence of a union that moves slowly, like a behemoth, and is known for its democracy but not for its absolute unity.
The bloc must keep its ship together if future generations are to enjoy their freedom unshackled by threats from bigger neighbors.
