EU stares at difficult year on migration policy

Russia’s war against Ukraine has triggered a large movement of refugees toward the West. Some 4.8 million people were registered as temporary protection seekers by the UN Refugee Agency through early December, mainly in the eastern European Union: Poland, Germany, the Baltics, Romania and Slovakia. Depending on the course of the war, next year could see even bigger numbers. The bloc faces the biggest refugee crisis since World War II, EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said in Brussels in mid-December, adding that together Europe would continue to support people. However, some EU states already complain of being overwhelmed. In Germany, too, the federal and local governments have cited difficulties with accommodation. Johansson faces the challenge of maintaining a sense of unity among the member states in 2023. That’s because so far, the war refugees have not been distributed according to any formula, and are instead moving freely within the EU under a special protection status without asylum procedures. Concerns about Ukrainian refugees have also obscured growing migration movements in the southeast. In the past year, the numbers of asylum-seekers from Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan or Egypt, along with irregular border crossings, have risen sharply. The border management agency Frontex registered around 280,000 irregular entries by October — 77% more than in 2021 and the highest number since the peak of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016, for which there are only estimations. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson says the EU faces its biggest refugee crisis yet In its “risk analysis” for the coming years until 2032, Frontex said it expects migration pressure to continue increasing. “In the next decade, EU border management will experience a higher occurrence of migration/refugee crises (or disproportionate pressures) that will test the effectiveness of border controls. The complex interplay of geopolitics, security conflicts, and other mega trends will influence different regions of the world, including countries in close proximity to Europe,” the report says. Since migration movements would pose a massive threat to the security of Europe’s external borders, the Warsaw-based organisation, also known as the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, has recommended comprehensive precautions to strengthen border protection. European Union interior ministers have taken these warnings seriously and promised at the last meeting of the year in Brussels to once again intensify their so far fruitless efforts in 2023. In the first half of the year, the Swedish presidency of the EU is expected to push for asylum reforms and border management, topics that the ministers have been unable to agree on for years. But the fundamental conflict between the states that want to further restrict access for migrants and those that are still willing to accept them is unlikely to be resolved in 2023. While the more migrant-friendly states are demanding solidarity and relief from the proponents of a “Fortress Europe,” this has hardly been forthcoming. As a result, countries of first entry such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Hungary or Croatia allow migrants and possible asylum-seekers to continue their journey northward. Austria and Germany then complain that tens of thousands of people file asylum applications with them, when they should actually file in the country where they entered the EU.