D G PATHAK: The ongoing Ukraine-Russia military conflict, the emerging pattern of developments in West Asia, and the inscrutable economic ‘Cold War between the US-led West and the residual Communist empire now led by China continue to shape the current geopolitics. It has to be acknowledged that India under Prime Minister Modi has handled international relations in this global setting in a manner that has best served the security and economic interests of the nation.
An approach free of ideological tints too big power rivalry that was in evidence in the context of Russian military intervention in Ukraine enabled India to see that a sudden call for activation of NATO by President Biden and the talk of giving members of this military alliance to Ukraine, did create security concerns for Russia, that an emphasis on the sovereign democratic status of Ukraine guaranteeing ‘one man one vote regardless of distinction of creed, language and region and without involving the country in such an alliance, was important and that an immediate stoppage of military operations to be followed by a ‘peace pact’ between the two neighbors in conflict, was the way out of the global crisis.
Prime Minister Modi who had the distinction of being the only world leader favored by both Ukrainian President Zelensky and President Putin as a mediator, spoke to both early on to share India’s stand with them. The US-led West is pumping in arms and other war equipment into Ukraine to help the Ukrainian army – by proxy – to resist the Russian military action but in the process, this has become an unending conflict in which Russia is choosing its targets without having to unleash an all-out war.
A significant feature of this conflict is that the Indian formula for ending it still holds good. India’s constructive policy stood its ground through the phase of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia and the multiple voting in UNSC on the Russian military action and in various summits like those of Quad, BRICS, and G-7, many participants showed an understanding of India’s stand. The US abstained from making any specific criticism of India’s policy as both Prime Minister Modi and President Biden clearly understood that regardless of the Ukraine episode, Indo-US relations reflecting the natural friendship between the two largest democracies were destined to touch the deepest levels.
It also must have been seen by the democratic world that the Indo-Russia friendship was helping to keep Putin from totally drifting towards China and this was good as much for the Western democracies as it was for India specifically. It is in the fitness of things that the US has brought back its focus on the aggressive designs of China by asserting its support to Taiwan and sending Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei against President Xi Jinping’s warnings. India’s military resilience on the LAC on the one hand and total support to Quad on the other, are a part of India’s strategy to thwart Chinese aggression on land and sea. A consistent campaign of India against terrorism at all international forums has exposed not only Pakistan but also the Sino-Pak axis. India is positioning itself well as signs emerge of a new Cold War between the US and China.
China has been seeking the economic route to becoming a superpower – apart from building its military might – and the countering response of the US since the time of President Donald Trump has been to take on the former in the sphere of economy and trade. At the last Quad summit in Tokyo in May this year, President Biden significantly launched an initiative for building economic relationships called Indo-Pacific Economic Cooperation for Prosperity (IPEC). Besides the four Quad members, nine more Asian countries joined the move. IPEC declared that “the US will explore with partners the development of an Indo- Pacific economic framework that will define their shared objectives around trade facilitation, digital economy and technology, supply chain resilience, decarbonization and clean energy, infrastructure, workers standards and other areas of shared interest.”
India actively backed the proposal, stressed its commitment to cooperating with all IPEC members, and stated that this was in furtherance of India’s goal of making the Indo-Pacific region free, open, and inclusive. China, naturally, condemned the action when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Pakistan’s new Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as the US attempted to ‘concoct’ a grouping by ‘ganging up’ with some countries to influence China’s ‘neighborhood environment.’ India has handled the US-China, US-Russia, and China-Pakistan connections in ways that have benefited its own security and economic influence. This is a commendable strategic achievement.
India’s special alliance with Russia has proven to be of critical assistance in fighting off Pakistan’s hostile efforts to enlist radical Islamic groups in cross-border terrorism against this country, especially after its success in restoring the Taliban Emirate in Kabul. Pakistan clearly took advantage of US pressures to evacuate American troops from Afghanistan. The Pakistani ISI’s potential to cause unrest in Kashmir and disseminate extremism throughout the country has expanded dramatically as a result of effective collaboration with the Emirate. Pakistan has declared that India, with its “Hindutva politics,” is its main opponent, and has provocatively claimed that India’s Muslim minority is insecure under the Modi rule.
There is a clear ISI hand behind the recent spurt in terror attacks on vulnerable individual Hindus carried out in revenge for the alleged ‘insult’ to Prophet Mohammad by a BJP functionary during a TV discussion. Pakistan has taken its anti-India rhetoric to the OIC and escalated communal propaganda against India with the help of lobbies in the West and elsewhere. Its military alliance with China and the covert offensives of the two hostile neighbors are a cause for concern but the security and diplomatic setup of India are fully geared to deal with them.
