Pakistan’s intransigence on IWT

India has asked Pakistan to rectify the material breach in the Indus Waters Treaty pointing out that it had made several attempts to find a mutually agreeable way forward, and that Pakistan had refused to discuss the issue during the five meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission from 2017 to 2022. This demand on behalf of India is something that has been on the anvil for many years now. Therefore, it is no surprise that India has called for a modification of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 with the World Bank as a signatory to share the waters of six Indus basin rivers that flow from India to Pakistan. As per the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, India has complete rights over three eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan has complete rights over three western rivers—Sindhu, Chenab, and Jhelum. A lot of water has flowed down these rivers of the Indus basin since the treaty was signed more than 60 years ago. Back then, India under Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru may have taken a more lenient view of the situation as compared to the scene today. Then came three wars with Pakistan in1965 and 1971 which led to the liberation of Bangladesh) and the Kargil war in 1999. All of them were examples of unprovoked military aggression on the part of Pakistan, which led to its defeat on all three occasions. Then there has been the malaise of cross-border terrorism inflicted by Pakistan on India for nearly four decades now. Taking shape under General Zia-Ul-Haq, Pakistan thought that it could inflict a thousand small cuts and create fissures in Indian society. All along India has been patient on the Indus Waters Treaty, only raising its point of view occasionally. The differences between India and Pakistan centered on the technical designs of the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power projects. With India forcing Pakistan’s hand and drawing it to intergovernmental negotiations on the issue within 90 days, it is clear that its patience is wearing thin on this matter. India has cited Pakistan’s intransigence in this matter as the reason for this stalemate and therefore, is seeking a resolution. Pakistan sought the intervention of the World Bank in 2016 through a court of arbitration on its objections. India, on the other hand, wanted a neutral expert to examine the issue. In October last year, the World Bank appointed a neutral expert and a chairman of the court of arbitration on the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power projects. Some experts, however, contend that you cannot have two independent, parallel mechanisms on the same matter. As things stand, Pakistan does not seem to realize that the Indus Waters Treaty itself stands imperiled. India can choose to pull out of the Indus Waters Treaty under the Vienna Convention of Law of Treaties if it so chooses. Meanwhile, India is moving forward with the 540 MW Kwar hydropower project in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kishtwar district and Kiru hydroelectric project, among others, to counter the Pakistan-China axis in the region. Pakistan, given its grave economic situation, can opt to precipitate matters on IWT at its own risk. Interesting times lie ahead.