While much of the world’s attention remains on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to restore his country’s international prominence extend far beyond Europe. In resource-rich Africa, for instance, Moscow is looking to restore the influence that the former Soviet Union once had there. In the Americas, meanwhile, Russia last month took part in war games in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Yet another example of Putin’s desire to assert power can be found in the Russian Far East and Asia Pacific. Examples of this include his meetings with successive Japanese prime ministers to try to foster joint economic activities in the disputed islands off Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido.
This month, Russia will double down on its focus in this Far East region, both geopolitically and economically. On Sept. 1, Moscow launched several days of military drills there and in the Sea of Japan involving more than 50,000 troops, 140 aircraft and 60 warships, including a large contingent from China, to “practice joint action to protect sea communications, areas of marine economic activity and support for ground troops in littoral areas.”
It is intended to demonstrate that Moscow has sufficient military might for massive drills, even as its troops are engaged in military action in Ukraine.
This is the latest in a series of joint war games hosted by Beijing and Moscow in recent years, including naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. Last year, Russian troops for the first time were deployed to Chinese territory for joint maneuvers.
On the economics front, Moscow will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok between Sept. 5 and Sept. 8, at which Putin will deliver the keynote address. This event is designed to support the economic development of the Russian Far East and to expand international cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region, including China, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement, BRICS (the name given to the grouping of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Guests from more than 60 countries are expected to attend the event this week. During last year’s forum, agreements totaling about 3.6 trillion rubles ($60 billion) were signed. Across these various economic and political forums, one of the consistent themes is the increasingly warm ties between Russia and China under Putin and his counterpart in Beijing, Xi Jinping. Each regards the other as his closest ally in world politics. Although the national interests of Russia and China are far from uniform, both countries are likely to work together to hedge against the continuing chill in their ties with the US.
Andrew Hammond
The security aspect of this relationship is widely commented on but what is less well understood is the extensive economic dialogue. There are bilateral plans for numerous cooperative projects, including a new method of interbank transfers and a joint credit agency that seeks to create a shared financial and economic infrastructure that will allow the countries to function independently of Western-dominated financial institutions.
China and Russia are also among the states involved in creating alternative forums to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, including the New Development Bank, which will finance infrastructure and other projects in BRICS states.
Moreover, in the energy sector the two states have signed a $400 billion deal for the supply of natural gas that includes the construction of an approximately 2,000-mile gas pipeline from eastern Siberia to northeastern China. They have also agreed to construct a second major gas pipeline from western Siberia to China’s Xinjiang province.
The boost to the bilateral economic cooperation agenda has helped to enable the countries to work toward stronger common positions on key regional and global issues, too, from Ukraine to Taiwan. China has pointedly refused, for example, to criticize Russia’s actions in Ukraine, instead blaming the US and NATO for provoking Moscow. Russia, in turn, backed China amid the heightened tensions with Washington that followed the recent visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives. Putin has drawn parallels between the US support for Ukraine and Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, suggesting that both are part of efforts to foment global instability.
Even though Moscow and Beijing in the past rejected the possibility of forging a military alliance, Putin has said that such a prospect cannot be ruled out. He noted that Russia has been sharing highly sensitive military technologies with China that have helped to significantly bolster its defense capabilities.
Moreover, Putin and Xi have announced a “strategic partnership” between the former Communist rivals as both Moscow and Beijing face increasing tensions with the West.
Although the national interests of Russia and China are far from uniform, it is very likely that both presidents will continue to work closely together, not only to further bilateral interests but also to hedge against the continuing chill in US ties.
And while this is underpinned by their growing economic and political dialogue, it is their personal closeness that appears to be driving a rejuvenated relationship that might now warm further into the 2020s, and possibly even the 2030s, if both men remain in power.
