Sudan crisis & India’s concerns

India has every reason to worry and be concerned over the unending violence in the African nation Sudan. It lies at the crossroads of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, bordering the Red Sea. It shares its border with seven countries: Libya, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. And the reason behind India’s interest in Sudan is because of its grown trade in the recent past significantly, besides investments too. These two factors have generated such interest and encouraged Indian engagement with that nation. During the last 26 years the exports of India to Sudan have increased at an annualized rate of 13.5%, from $37.4M in 1995 to $1.01B in 2021. In 2021, India did not export any services to Sudan. Sudan-India In 2021, Sudan exported $259M to India. Hence, the delay in the implementation of the peace deal and conflict in western and eastern Sudan is posing serious challenges to the huge Indian interest. And New Delhi’s role and interest in the context of the ongoing crisis in Sudan becomes all the more serious. The lack of democracy and good governance has perpetuated the conflict and made peace unsustainable. Prolongation of such a situation is not in India’s interest given its economic and energy stakes in Sudan. A prudent and proactive role on the part of India has become necessary to address Sudan’s concerns and challenges and thereby advance its growing interests in Sudan and Africa. Today, Sudan is in a familiar deadlock, subject to the whims of a brutal military regime after a coup. On a continent with a bad record in this respect, Sudan is in a class of its own, with six coups and 10 failed attempts since independence in 1956. Since independence, the nation is being governed, with only occasional breaks, by the Arab elite in Sudan, bent on plundering the country’s considerable wealth at the expense of its people. Their rule, exercised through the army, has been cloaked in the language of Islam; it is a kleptocracy. And, kleptocracy is a government whose corrupt leaders use political power to appropriate the wealth of their nation, typically by embezzlement or misappropriation of government funds at the expense of the wider population. The consequence is a country beset by wars and conflict between the center and the immiserated peripheries. The army and its allied militias, notably the Rapid Support Forces, have used their power to carve out swathes of the economy for themselves, well beyond defense industries. Civilian rule, bringing transparency, as well as democracy, would threaten those financial interests. The victims of decades of misrule are ordinary Sudanese. Facing inflation rates of over 100%, almost a quarter of the population can barely feed themselves and millions live in refugee camps. By contrast, the elites seem to get by. But the current violence was sparked by a disagreement over the integration of the Rapid Support Force (RPF) into the military as part of this transition toward civilian rule. “The killing of humanitarian workers and scores of Sudanese is unacceptable. The ethnic groups broke out across multiple locations in Blue Nile state, killing at least 97 people and wounding over 100. The fighting followed escalating tensions and ethnic polarization over an attempt by the Hausa leader in Blue Nile to establish an emirate within the state Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, head of the armed forces, and Gen. Mohammed HamdanDagalo, the leader of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces that grew out of Darfur’s notorious Janjaweed militias, are each seeking to seize control of Sudan. As the fighting in Sudan continues, India has two Air Force planes in Jeddah and a navy ship in Port Sudan on standby to evacuate its 3,000 stranded citizens. Indian embassy personnel will stay put to oversee the operations. Meanwhile, the US and the UK have airlifted their diplomats. The only way forward for Sudan is that its military, which is now in a difficult position as the civil-military relationship is already at a breaking point. And, the UN has to take the initiative for a meaningful dialogue between all Sudanese parties to “reach an inclusive, peaceful, and lasting solution. But a genuine transition should also prevent the military from continuing to act as the country’s ultimate authority, able to reset timetables and remove governing officials at will.